By Laura Johanne Schou Carlsen, AAU Communication and Public Affairs
Photo: Privat

The DK-Future project, which has just received DKK 4.48 million in funding from the Villum Foundation’s Synergy programme, seeks to develop novel GeoAI models capable of predicting how land use in Denmark will evolve over the coming decades under various climate scenarios and the implication of these changes. 

Cross-disciplinary Collaboration with Societal Impact in Mind

The project is led by Associate Professor Andrés R. Masegosa, from the Department of Computer Science, and Professor Jamal Jokar Arsanjani, from the Department of Sustainability and Planning, both based at AAU-Copenhagen. Together with colleagues from Aalborg University and the University of Almería in Spain, they will combine earth observations, climate projections, and socio-economic data to develop probabilistic GeoAI models.

These models will not only forecast future land-use patterns but also quantify the uncertainty of those predictions. By quantifying uncertainty, these models look beyond the most likely futures to capture low-probability but consequential shifts — such as the coastal ecosystems degradation, farmlands turning wetlands due to increasing floods, drying wetlands due to increasing droughts — supporting climate resilience planners and relevant stakeholders  with more nuanced and interactive, data-driven, open science tools when making choices about land and environmental management in light of climate change.

From Complexity to Concrete Action

Climate change is already reshaping how we use and exploit our land. Sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events such as coastal/pluvial/city floodings, storm surges, and droughts are becoming more frequent. At the same time, the need to provide land for urban development, nature conservation, and food production is growing while fulfilling the ambitions of the Danish Tripart Deal.

From a societal impact perspective, DK-Future will support Danish authorities and stakeholders, to be aware of these changes and use them in their climate resilience planning. 

Aalborg University stands out in this year’s Synergy grants. In addition to DK-Future, another research team has also received support for a cross-disciplinary project. Read more about it here: Sound and Artificial Intelligence to reveal batteries’ hidden lifespan.